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Revival Seen In Monsoon Activity: What To Expect In Coming Weeks

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The progress of monsoon rainfall is being watched by farmers and economists alike. While sowing of crops such as cotton, corn and pulses has been delayed due to slow progress of monsoon, weather office IMD (India Meteorological Department) has said the situation is “very likely” to improve in the coming two-three days. In Delhi, monsoon rainfall is expected to arrive anytime between June 29 and July 1, according to IMD. The coming week is expected to bring a much-needed respite for Delhi, which is currently reeling under a heat wave. Monsoons deliver about 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall

Data from IMD shows that less than 25 per cent of the country has received normal or excess rains so far this monsoon season. On Sunday, the weather office said that monsoon activity had revived over the weekend and is making a steady advance. The weatherman had said earlier this week that conditions are becoming favourable for the advancement of monsoon into more parts of central and western India in the next two to three days.

Conditions will become favourable for pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity over parts of northwest India from June 27, news agency Press Trust of India cited IMD Additional Director General Mritunjay Mohapatra as saying.

Monsoon rainfall so far this month

Regions Actual Rainfall (mm) Normal Rainfall (mm)  % Departure from LPA
Country as a whole  84.5 90.6 -7%
Northwest India  28.8 32.8 -12%
Central India  72.6 79.9 -9%
South Peninsula  132.4 97.6 36%
East & northeast India  158 216.2 -27%
(Source: imd.gov.in)

During June 1-June 20, cumulative monsoon rainfall for the country was 7 per cent below LPA (long-period average), according to IMD. Monsoon rainfall was 9 per cent lower than normal in the central regions of the country, data showed.

Monsoon rains hit Kerala a few days earlier than normal last month, but from the second week of June, it lost momentum. Usually monsoon covers the entire country by mid-July.

According to IMD, India is likely to receive a “better monsoon” than it did in 2017, with the entire country expected to see “normal rainfall” between 96 to 104 per cent from June to September, news agency IANS cited officials as saying.

Monsoon rainfall in Delhi

According to both IMD as well as private weather forecasting agency Skymet, Delhi will see on-time arrival of monsoon while the rainfall in LPA is not yet clear. Monsoon is expected to arrive in Delhi on June 29.

What to expect from monsoon rainfall in coming weeks

IMD said on Friday that the monsoon rainfall scenario is “very likely to improve from around June 24. The weather office pointed at conditions “very likely to become favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon over remaining parts of Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and some parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and some parts of south Gujarat region between June 23 -25”. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely to occur along the west coast, over interior Maharashtra and Karnataka, northeastern states and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during most days of the first week (June 21 to June 27), it noted. “Rainfall activity is very likely to increase over parts of east India and over Chhattisgarh with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over the above regions during second half of the 1st week,” IMD added.

Overall rainfall activity is likely to be normal to above normal over the country except most parts of northwest, central and eastern parts of the country, where it is likely to be below normal during the first week (June 21 to June 27). During the second week (June 28 to July 4), there may be increase in rainfall activity over most parts of the country.

Weak monsoon delays cotton sowing

Cotton sowing has been delayed in Gujarat and Maharashtra, the country’s top two producers of the fibre, as rainfall wasn’t sufficient for sowing, news agency Reuters cited Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India, as saying. “But sowing can pick up once monsoon covers these parts,” he said.

Cotton sowing is down 16.3 per cent, while soybean planting has lagged by 59 per cent during the period.

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